Dynamics of population mobility in İstanbul metropolitan area
Fikret Zorlu, Ali Cenap YoloğluDepartment of City and Regional Planning, Mersin University Faculty of Architecture, Mersin, TürkiyeThe aim of this study is to determine how physical expansion and urban redevelopment affect the population distribution and population mobility in the metropolitan area of Istanbul. In the study, the spatial change of the population at the district and neighbourhood level in the 2013–2017 period was examined. In the first stage, the population change, macro-form developments, housing production in the 2000–2017 period were examined and the magnitude of the spatial change was revealed. And in the second stage, the spatial distribution of population mobility in the city was examined. The study covers 39 districts in the metropolitan area of Istanbul. In order to determine the urban change, the built environment in the metropolitan area of 2000, 2007, 2012, and 2017 were compared and for this purpose, the CORINE database, Google, and Yandex maps were used. The population data of the same period were obtained from the general population census and address-based population registration system database for the neighbourhood and district levels. Population mobility between districts was obtained from the TurkStat intra- and inter-provincial migration database. In addition, one of the most important indicators explaining population mobility and spatial concentration in the metropolitan area is building occupancy permits on a district basis, and these data were obtained from the TURKSTAT Construction Statistics database. Some of the variables were obtained from previous studies on Istanbul. “Stratified regression analysis” was used in the study. When the net migration data of the districts of Istanbul received from both other provinces and other districts of Istanbul are evaluated; districts that receive immigration from both other provinces and other districts of Istanbul (Region-I) are Esenyurt, Sancaktepe, Arnavutköy, Tuzla, Çekmeköy, Beylikdüzü, Büyükçekmece, Silivri, Şile, Çatalca, Maltepe, and Başakşehir districts. The districts that give population to other provinces but receive immigration from other districts of Istanbul (Region-II) are Eyüpsultan, Kartal, and Pendik districts. Avcılar, Bağcılar, Bahçelievler, Bakırköy, Bayrampaşa, Beykoz, Beyoğlu, Esenler, Fatih, Gaziosmanpaşa, Güngören, Kadıköy, Kağıthane, Küçükçekmece, Sultangazi, Ümraniye and Zeytinburnu (Region-III) are the districts that give population to other provinces and Istanbul's other districts. Finally, districts that receive immigration from other provinces but immigrate to other districts of Istanbul (Region-IV) are Şişli, Beşiktaş, Üsküdar, Sarıyer, Ataşehir and Sultanbeyli districts. In the 2013–2017 period, 1.4 million people moved out to other addresses within Istanbul. The population movement is bidirectional, from centre to periphery and vice versa. Another dimension of the population mobility in Istanbul is the locational preferences of foreign nationals. According to the study conducted by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Istanbul in 2018, 60% of the foreign nationals (refugees and migrants) in Istanbul live in the 3rd region. In other words, foreign nationals take the place of the locals, moving out of core areas to the fringes. The cost of rent, security concerns, transport systems, urban redevelopment, inclination to work in places with irregular economic activities, and desire to live close to the established migrant population are all elements that contribute to this preference. According to the results of the regression analysis, only the new housing permits determine the inward migration (R2=0.892). Outward migration is determined by the population of the district, quality of life and population density (R2=0.875). Physical thresholds in the metropolitan area of Istanbul prevent urban sprawl and this causes an intense urban development demand. This dense metropolitan development pattern is shaped by limitations such as inadequate public resource allocation for strong public transport infrastructure, and limited or high-cost land to develop new cities, topography, sea, or protected areas. It is observed that the urban area expands more slowly compared to the population growth, so the gross density has also increased. When the population change at the neighbourhood level after 2013 is examined, a significant decrease in the population in the central regions of the metropolitan area and significant population increases along the corridors in the periphery were detected. It has been determined that there is deconcentration and expansion in the metropolitan area, but there is very little change in the form of suburbanisation, decentralisation, sprawl and rural dispersal. Population mobility in a metropolitan area at this scale causes difficulties in estimating population distribution in urban planning. The estimation of the spatial distribution of the population is vital in transport planning, provision of public services, and infrastructure planning. The results obtained in this study can be used in long-term estimates of the spatial distribution of the population.
Keywords: Istanbul metropolitan area, population mobility; deconcentrationİstanbul metropoliten alanında nüfus hareketliliğinin dinamikleri
Fikret Zorlu, Ali Cenap YoloğluMersin Üniversitesi Mimarlık Fakültesi, Şehir ve Bölge Planlama Bölümü, Mersin, TürkiyeTürkiye’de metropoliten kentlerde nüfus artışı ve kentsel alandaki genişleme devam ederken nüfusun mekânsal dağılımının nasıl değiştiği ve metropoliten alan içi nüfus yer değişiminin ne düzeyde olduğunu inceleyen araştırma bulunmamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, İstanbul metropoliten alanında mekânsal gelişme ve dönüşümün metropoliten alan içi konut hareketliliğini nasıl etkilediği incelenmektedir. Hangi değişkenlerin içe doğru ve dışa doğru hareketleri belirlediğini saptamak için “stepwise regression” analizi uygulanmıştır. Araştırma bulguları şunu göstermektedir: ilçelerde içe doğru nüfus göçünü (ing. inward migration) sadece yapı kullanma izni sayısı açıklamaktadır. Dışa doğru göçü (ing. outward migration) ise ilçenin nüfusu, yaşam kalitesi ve yoğunluk açıklamaktadır. İstanbul metropoliten alanında nüfus hem merkeze hem de yeni gelişen mahallelere doğru iki yönde yer değiştirmektedir. Diğer bir deyişle, hem nüfusun bir kısmı çeperdeki ilçelerden merkeze hareket ederken hem de çeperdeki ilçelerin tamamında bir yoğunlaşma gözlenmiştir. Merkezde nüfus yoğunluğu azalırken çeperde nüfus yoğunluğu artmaktadır ve bu durum da bir yayılma (ing. deconcentration) olduğunu göstermektedir. Kentsel dönüşüm ve yeni konut projeleri metropoliten alanlarda nüfus yoğunluğunu, konut fiyatlarını, mekân kalitesini ve erişilebilirlik düzeylerini değiştirmekte, buna bağlı olarak konut hareketliliği (ing. residential mobility) bu değişimlerden önemli düzeyde etkilenmektedir. Literatürdeki pek çok çalışma metropoliten alanların merkezi alanlarda yoğun bir kentsel bölge ile çeperde ise düşük yoğunluklu banliyö (suburban) mahallelerden oluştuğunu göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada, İstanbul metropoliten alanında merkezi mahalleler ile çeper mahalleler arasında belirgin bir yoğunluk farkı olmadığı, neredeyse her mahallede yoğun bir nüfus olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Atıf için yazım şekli: Zorlu F, Yoloğlu AC. Dynamics of population mobility in İstanbul metropolitan area. Megaron 2022;17(2): 221–234. [Article in Turkish]
Manuscript Language: Turkish
